Welcome back to the fold, Egypt!
There is no justifiable argument why it can't regain all that it lost in the last 60 years.
- By Mishaal Al Gergawi, Special to Gulf News
The fervour that reached "the mother of the world", as Egyptians and fellow Arabs affectionately refer to Egypt, 18 days ago, forced its president to resign. And with him came down the exclusive rule of the NDP. The demonstrations quickly spread to major Egyptian cities, with Tahrir Square functioning like Egypt's moral Vatican, and everyone agreed that things needed to change — for the better.
Everyone, from the 40 per cent of Egyptians who live on $2 (Dh7.35) a day, to students, journalists and veterans agree that Egypt just didn't work — yet it could.
Just look at how fast its advertising industry overtook its Lebanese-run counterpart in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Or look at how business group Orascom compares to commercial holdings in the Gulf. Or look at the potential growth in the tourism industry. To borrow from a recent show: Egypt's Got Talent — and resources ... it was just run badly.
Almost 60 years ago, a group of officers thought so too and staged a military coup that would dissolve King Farouk's puppet monarchy and replace it with an Arab-flavoured version of state socialism that would fight three wars with Israel, only to sign a peace treaty with it to get the land it lost in those wars. Also worth noting is the large-scale nationalisation of private enterprises, most notably Onsi Sawiris' construction business and the fierce crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood group, eventually disallowing it.
In an interview with Al Arabiya, Abdul Hakim Abdul Nasser, the son of Jamal Abdul Nasser, said that the July 23 revolutionaries had effectively become the very thing they revolted against i.e. elitist, corrupt and oppressive.
After major debt restructuring and relief, following its participation in the Gulf War coalition, Egypt began the painful protracted process of transforming its economy into a market-oriented one. With privatisation and real GDP growth maintained above 5 per cent for the last five years, it has been hailed a success by IMF & Co, but the reality on the ground is different.
The consensus
While there was an emerging middle class working in Egypt's brave new (and old) corporations, the consensus was that members of the ruling party and their affiliates were the only ones to profit from the growth.
A week ago, one would've said that like Tunisia and all Arab states today, Egypt's kingmaker would be the army. However, two factors have preordained the army's position as a peacekeeper that wouldn't participate in anything beyond the aversion of chaos. The first reason for the military's relatively neutral role is Hosni Mubarak's transformation from a military officer to a businessman president. This has definitely distanced him, at least figuratively, from the position of the army's commander-in-chief.
Secondly, the US has, for the most part, made it clear that the military aid it provides to Egypt is not in question. This is most probably to maintain a negotiating factor with the army to pressure whoever is elected in the elections later this year to maintain the Israeli accords, the peace treaty, Rafah border, gas pipeline etc.
On July 23, 1952, the free officers' movement revolted against a puppet monarchy that served the interests of foreign nations and a minority upper class. On January 25, 2011, the free youth movement began to peacefully demonstrate against a puppet regime that served the interests of foreign nations and a minority upper class. The difference is that the first was organised by military officers like Jamal Abdul Nasser and the latter was organised by educated youth like computer engineer Wael Ghonim.
In a cable to the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, made public by WikiLeaks, US Ambassador to Cairo, Margaret Scobey, said that Egypt likes to think of itself as "the indispensable Arab state." But few would disagree that over the last 15-20 years, Egypt has failed to lead, both by example and regional mediation and has in the process become anything but indispensable. Gone are the days when Cairo's stance on an issue swayed regional opinion and policy.
Slipping into irrelevance
In fact, many believe that post the IMF/World Bank economic restructurings, the regime sold its foreign policy to Israel. Its staunch alliance with Israel and Palestinian National Authority, especially it's controversial decision to keep the Rafah border closed during the Gaza war of December 2008 and January 2009, exemplified this.
Mubarak allowed Egypt to become irrelevant; its regional political role reduced to puppetry, its economic engine misappropriated and unutilised and its cultural production allowed to sink to unprecedented lows. Egypt deserves better than this and there is no justifiable argument why it can't regain all that it lost and maintain all it gained during the last 60 years.
January 25 isn't a one-way ticket to heaven, but it's an overdue migration for a nation that has lingered behind for far too long and for no good reason but bad management. And what a way for Egypt to "really" become the indispensable state its old guard viewed it, than to be the inspirer of similar uprisings in other countries. Welcome back Egypt.
- Mishaal Al Gergawi is an Emirati current affairs commentator.
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