By Damla Ergun
Strong public support for same-sex marriage exceeds strong opposition by
a significant margin for the first time in ABC News/Washington Post
polls, and African-Americans have moved more in favor, perhaps taking
their lead from Barack Obama on the issue.
Overall, 53 percent of Americans say gay marriage
should be legal, steady the past year but up from 36 percent in just
2006. Thirty-nine percent "strongly" support it, while 32 percent are
strongly opposed - the first time strong sentiment has tilted positive.
Six years ago, by contrast, strong views on the issue were negative by a
broad 27-point margin.
Further, this poll, produced for ABC by
Langer Research Associates,
finds that support for gay marriage has reached a new high among
African-Americans in ABC/Post polls, up from four in 10 in recent
surveys to 59 percent now.
Another result shows increasing exposure: Seventy-one percent of
Americans now say they have a friend, family member or acquaintance
who's gay, up from 59 percent in 1998. People who know someone who's gay
are 20 points more likely than others to support gay marriage.
Regardless of that shift, Obama's May 9 announcement of his support for
gay marriage shows no measurable impact on political preferences. While
more support than oppose his position, 51-41 percent, Americans divide
on whether it's a political plus or minus, with most saying it's not a
major factor in their vote choice.
SUPPORT - Support for gay marriage reached a majority for the first time
in an ABC/Post poll in March 2011 and has held there since, at 51 to 53
percent. Strong support has been essentially at parity with strong
opposition across that time, a shift from previous years.
In this poll, though, strong opposition to gay marriage is at a new low
in polls since 2004, while strong support is at a numerical high,
producing a 7-point positive gap.
Notably among groups, 59 percent of African-Americans in this survey
express support for gay marriage - up from 41 percent in combined
ABC/Post polls this spring and last summer. Likewise, 65 percent support
Obama's new position on the issue. The National Association for the
Advancement of Colored People announced its support for gay marriage
last weekend.
Fewer whites, 46 percent, approve of Obama's announcement, and 50
percent support gay marriage - numerically (albeit not statistically
significantly) the fewest since 2010.
VOTE and GROUPS - While 20 percent see the issue as a major reason to
support Obama, about as many, 23 percent, call it a major reason to
oppose him, both among groups that look likely to have supported or
opposed him anyway. Fifty-five percent say it's not a major factor.
Even among those who approve of the president's support for the issue,
nearly six in 10 say it's not an important factor in their vote; 38
percent call it a major reason to support him. More of those who
disapprove of his position, half, call it a major reason to oppose him
in the election.
Sharp differences among groups persist. Republicans and conservatives
oppose gay marriage by more than 2-1, evangelical white Protestants by
more than 3-1. While Democrats support it by more than 2-1, the balance
is tipped, as is often the case, by independents: Fifty-eight percent
support legalizing gay marriage; 43 percent do so strongly.
Among other groups, support for gay marriage reaches 69 percent among
adults under age 30 (with 51 percent "strong" support), compared with
just 38 percent of seniors. (Half of seniors are strongly opposed).
Support is also 14 points higher among college graduates than among
non-graduates, 63 to 49 percent. But it's the same, 53 percent, among
men and women alike.
FRIEND/FAMILY - As noted, seven in 10 Americans report having a friend,
family member or acquaintance who is gay or lesbian. They're much more
apt to support gay marriage (59 percent, vs. 39 percent of those who
don't know someone who is gay) and also to approve of the president's
position on the issue (56 percent, vs. 39 percent of others).
As with support for gay marriage, knowing someone who's gay is notably
high among young adults and people with college degrees, 80 percent in
each group. It's higher among women than men, 76 vs. 66 percent. Broad
majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents (65, 71 and 76
percent, respectively) also report having a friend, family member or
acquaintance who is gay. It's 56 percent each, by contrast, among blacks
and seniors.
STATE vs. FED - Obama said he supports gay marriage personally but
believes the states should decide on its legality; on that the public
splits about evenly, with 49 percent favoring state control vs. 46
percent who'd prefer to have the federal government make the rules.
Support for federal legislation is higher (57 percent) among proponents
of gay marriage; among those who oppose gay marriage, the same share, 57
percent, prefer state rule. Thirty states have constitutionally banned
gay marriage; eight (plus Washington, D.C.) have legalized it (including
two in which those laws are yet to take effect).
Political divisions follow, with Republicans 23 points more apt to back
state rather than federal rule, Democrats 14 points more likely to favor
a single federal law - and independents roughly divided, 50-45 percent,
state-federal.
METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
telephone May 17-20, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,004
adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents.
Results have a margin of
sampling error of 3.5
points for the full sample. The survey was produced for ABC News by
Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Analysis by Damla Ergun and Gary Langer.
