Yesterday, the Romney campaign told reporters that it expected to win
at least some of the “blue states” in which it is now competing with
Obama in the Midwest, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
The campaign did not give a specific reason for its optimism, but one
thing these states have in common is a high proportion of Catholic
voters. And Catholic voters have shifted dramatically towards Mitt
Romney.
In September, the left and the
media were exultant when the Pew poll seemed to show a surge for Obama among Catholic voters. He led by fifteen points, 54-39.
Today, that bubble has burst completely, and Obama is
back down to a two-point lead, 48-46. (Few headlines this time from the mainstream media.)
Among
white Catholics, Romney has jumped to a
14-point lead (54-40) after being tied with Obama in September in the poll.
To understand just how significant that is,
consider
that in 2008, Obama won Catholics by 9 percent (54 to 45) and lost
white Catholics by just 5 percent (47 to 52). In 2004, the Catholic vote
went narrowly to Bush overall (more widely among white Catholics), and
in 2000 it went narrowly to Gore (and narrowly to Bush among white
Catholics).
The 14-point lead Romney currently enjoys among white Catholics is almost without precedent.
Catholic voters are abandoning Obama for the same reason many other
voters are: the sluggish economy, Romney’s strong performance in the
presidential debates, Obama’s dishonesty and failure in Benghazi.
Yet Catholic voters have reason to feel particularly aggrieved, given
the Obama administration’s battle with the Catholic church over the
mandate in Obamacare that employers cover abortion drugs and
contraceptives.
Those grievances came to the fore particularly sharply in mid-October, after the Vice Presidential
debate
between incumbent Democrat Joe Biden and Republican challenger Paul
Ryan (both Catholics). Ryan brought up the conflict between the
administration and the church over Obamacare:
“They're infringing upon
our first freedom, the freedom of religion, by infringing on Catholic
charities, Catholic churches, Catholic hospitals.”
Biden’s response was total denial:
With regard to the assault on the Catholic Church, let me make it
absolutely clear. No religious institution, Catholic or otherwise,
including Catholic Social Services, Georgetown Hospital, Mercy--any
hospital--none has to either refer contraception. None has to pay for
contraception. None has to be a vehicle to get contraception in any
insurance policy they provide. That is a fact. That is a fact.
Ryan responded simply: “If they agree with you, then why would they keep--why would they keep suing you?”
The church responded at greater length, with the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops publicly
disputing Biden’s “fact”:
This is not a fact. The HHS mandate contains a narrow, four-part
exemption for certain "religious employers." That exemption was made
final in February and does not extend to "Catholic social services,
Georgetown hospital, Mercy hospital, any hospital," or any other
religious charity that offers its services to all, regardless of the
faith of those served.
That extraordinary rebuke drove home the degree to which the Obama
administration has adopted a confrontational path with institutional
Catholicism. And it seems to have amplified the benefit of the debates,
for Romney and Ryan, among Catholic voters.
Obama’s collapse among Catholic voters, and especially white
Catholics, also suggests that the 2012 election is about much more than
the economy, even if the economy is the most important issue. For many
voters, the choice is also an ideological one, between a president who
has attempted to increase the power of the government at the expense of
religious liberty, and one who has committed to traditional values and
small government.
Two of the states in which Romney is suddenly competitive have
unemployment rates that are below the national average. Likewise in
Ohio, which also has many Catholic voters, and where the candidates
remain neck-and-neck.
The debates did much to establish Romney and Ryan as legitimate
alternatives, but also reminded the Catholic community it has no reason
to trust the Obama/Biden ticket with another four years. And the numbers
show it.
